Between 1980 and 2022, average annual cocoa futures consistently traded below $3,500 per metric ton. That changed in 2024 and 2025, when prices surged. Last May, prices hit $10,974 per metric ton. The spike was driven by severe supply disruptions: Cocoa farms in West Africa were battered by extreme weather and widespread crop disease.

In recent months, however, the rally has unraveled. Cocoa futures have plunged to around $3,150 per metric ton, down -68% from their May peak.

So what’s driving the downturn? Supply is recovering. Weather conditions in Ghana and the Ivory Coast have improved, and crop yields are rebounding after last year’s disruptions. Forecasters now expect 2026 to produce the largest cocoa surplus since the pandemic began.

Source: Demography Unplugged.